Undeterred by Rep. Patrick Kennedy’s past electoral success and the state’s Democratic leanings, a Rhode Island Republican state representative is seriously considering challenging the Democrat in 2010.
State Rep. John Loughlin told The Hill on Wednesday that he is mulling the bid after the Rhode Island GOP blasted an e-mail to their supporters urging them to draft Loughlin into the race.
“I am not ready to go ahead and say I’m running,” Loughlin said, “but it is something that I am very strongly considering.”
The e-mail criticized the $787 billion economic stimulus bill and asked: “Don’t you think it’s time we replace Patrick Kennedy in Washington?” It also touted Loughlin’s 26 years of service in the Army Reserve and encouraged supporters to e-mail Loughlin pledging their support. The e-mail was first reported Tuesday by the Providence Journal.Giovanni Cicione, the chairman of the Rhode Island GOP, said Loughlin has the political chops to take on Kennedy, something most of Kennedy’s previous challengers lacked.
“John’s a good, experienced, proven representative,” Cicione said. “I think candidates that run against Kennedy, including myself in 1996, a lot of them just didn’t have the experience winning races. John’s got the ability to raise money and he’s got credibility in the state.”
Kennedy’s office did not return phone calls seeking comment.
Loughlin would have to overcome several hurdles to defeat Kennedy, who was first elected to represent Rhode Island’s northern 1st district in 1994. First, there is the overwhelming Democratic leaning of the district. President Obama defeated Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the district 65 percent to 33 percent last year and 2004 Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) beat President Bush by a similar margin in, 62 percent to 36 percent.
“A Republican challenging Kennedy will not get very far here in Rhode Island,” said Marion Orr, a political scientist at Brown University.
On top of that, Kennedy has proven to be an effective campaigner. In 2008, he defeated Republican Jonathan Scott by a staggering 69 percent to 24 percent, and that was the second time Scott challenged him. In 2006, Kennedy also defeated him, 69 percent to 23 percent.
Kennedy’s successes led many in the state party to urge him to challenge then-Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) in 2006. Kennedy demurred and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse went on to defeat Chafee.
While Kennedy’s seat appears safe, Orr noted that the Democrat’s approval ratings have taken a hit in recent polling. A statewide Brown University poll released last week showed that 38 percent of respondents approved of Kennedy’s job performance, down from 47 percent in September of 2008.
“My suspicion is they are probably looking at polling numbers and suspect that there might be an opening,” Orr said.
Loughlin said he isn’t following polls and is more focused on whether he can field a strong campaign. “I’m not focused so much on Patrick Kennedy as I am on John Loughlin and the job I can do for the 1st district,” he said. He also said that unlike Kennedy’s past challengers, he has run winning campaigns. Kennedy, Loughlin said, has only faced one elected official in his entire career. All the other challengers, he added, had “zero political experience.”
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http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/rhode-island-lawmaker-may-take-on-kennedy-2009-02-25.html
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